WHA’CHA BET I READ ALL THIS?

GEOFF MANN WRITES, “WHAT’S THE TRUTH?,” London Review of Books, October 22, 2026; 6207 words about Prediction Markets.

I’m not a gambler in any way, sense, or style, though I confess I’ve known perfectly nice people who find pleasure—nay, downright excitement—in the turn of cards, the toss of dice, or the thundering of hooves.

Be advised, however, my gleaned tidbits that follow border on cherry-picking. From the middle of Mann’s most illuminating (and at times entertaining) article: “It is a general feature of prediction markets, even in the absence of market manipulation, that there are few winners and many losers.”

And if you bet I didn’t read the entire 6207 words, you’re a loser too.

George Santos, Banned From Kalshi For Life. Mann opens with, “In the days leading up to Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in February, the prediction market Kalshi set up a trade, a wager in all but name, on the Yes/No proposition that the disgraced Republican ex-congressman George Santos would attend. The larger the number of people who bet ‘Yes’ (or, in the language the prediction markets prefer, bought ‘Yes’ contracts), the more the value of the bet would rise; if they bet ‘No’, it would fall.”

Mann continues, “Santos saw an opportunity. Privately, he bet ‘Yes’, then started posting on social media that he was ‘going to be there’ for the speech, speculating about what he might wear and so on. As the money piled in, the price of ‘Yes’ rose. When he thought the time was right, Santos sold his ‘Yes’ contracts, bought ‘No’s, and then didn’t show up to the speech. He made $17,500 on the trade, which he had to return after his actions came to light, in addition to paying a fine of the same amount and being banned from Kalshi for life.”

So much for insider trading.

Kalshi and Polymarket. “The field,” Mann recounts, “ is currently dominated by Kalshi and its main competitor, Polymarket, and tens of billions of dollars are on the line. Participants deposit money in a portfolio and use it to buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ shares. Each share has a value between 1¢ and 99¢, which rises and falls with the distribution of ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ bets in the market. If, for example, almost everyone predicts that Barcelona Femení will win the Spanish league this season (usually a very safe bet), then the share price will move close to 99¢; if ‘No’ dominates a market, the price will move towards 1¢.”

Mann contrasts, “The key feature of prediction markets is that, unlike stock markets, there is a point at which the event being traded takes place or concludes, and the market then ‘resolves’ to ‘Yes’ or ‘No’. The winners get $1 for every contract, and the losers get nothing.”

Isn’t This Gambling? Mann observes, “The obvious questions—aren’t these contracts really bets, and aren’t prediction markets really just sports-betting businesses?—are the basis of several cases currently before U.S. federal courts. The matter is certain to reach the Supreme Court; a great deal of money, and substantial political capital, will ride on its decision.”

If they are bets, Mann notes, “In the U.S., gambling is regulated at state level. This makes for a very uneven landscape. Nevada embraced the industry a long time ago, but Wisconsin has traditionally been wary of the social costs of gambling and has kept the industry on a comparatively short leash. Utah, where the divide between a very conservative church and an equally conservative state is more blurred than it is elsewhere, bans virtually all forms of gambling. Other states have their own interests, as do the many Indigenous American communities for which casinos on reservations are a crucial source of revenue and employment.”

Or Are They Just Financial Derivatives? Mann observes, “Kalshi and Polymarket, however, say that they are not gambling businesses but markets for financial derivatives—specifically, ‘futures’—which are federally regulated. Nearly all of the cases before the courts turn on the legitimacy of this claim. This is the reason you won’t find the word ‘bet’ on any prediction market website (only ‘trades’, ‘contracts’ and so on), and market participants are never called ‘bettors’ or ‘punters’ in event contracts but ‘traders’, ‘market makers’ or ‘dealers’.”

This, despite the fact that 70 percent of Polymarket and 80 percent of Kalshi are “in sports-related propositions.”

Who Regulates Them? Mann notes, “Accordingly, U.S. prediction markets are subject to the oversight of a long-standing federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and operate in what has become a highly accommodating regulatory environment.”

“In January 2022,” Mann recounts, “the CFTC under Joe Biden charged Polymarket with operating an unregistered derivatives market in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act. Polymarket was given a $1.4 million fine and agreed to close non-compliant markets to Americans. It still has offices in New York, but is now legally based in Panama City, where the vast majority of its business operates essentially without regulation.”

Then Trump Returned. Mann relates, “But before the CFTC could come to terms with the regulatory challenges posed by prediction markets, Trump returned to the White House. Kalshi—along with Polymarket’s new U.S. subsidiary and other smaller prediction markets—could not have been luckier. Users bet $4 billion on the outcome of the presidential election. Trump decided he loved prediction markets, mostly because they said he would win. Big players in his kleptocracy immediately got involved in the industry, both as major investors and as ‘advisers’. Donald Trump Jr is paid lavishly by, and has been given equity in, both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Peter Thiel raised $70 million in venture capital for Polymarket. The chair of the CFTC since December 2025, Michael Selig, is a libertarian nationalist who writes self-promoting op-eds for Breitbart; as a lawyer, he worked for many years at a firm that represents Polymarket.”

“In May,” Mann observes, “The New York Times reported that the CFTC had been ‘steamrolled’ by the firms it is supposed to regulate, but that is to assume there is a meaningful separation between the regulator and the regulated. In fact, like many other institutions, Trump’s CFTC was not ‘captured’ by anybody: it was handed to them. Selig and his cronies are rich anti-regulators who have devoted themselves to defending the crypto industry and now the prediction markets, and to actively undermining any significant limits on their operation. The public interest has never mattered to them.”

As Mann describes, “…. there are few winners and many losers.” Wanna bet who the winners are? ds

© Dennis Simanaitis, SimanaitisSays.com, 2026