Simanaitis Says

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CONTRAIL HAZARDS

“AIRCRAFT CONTRAILS ARE actually government-dictated medications sprayed in the atmosphere to control people’s minds!”

Whoa, are the wackos at it again?

You don’t think so? Ha! Clearly, the chemtrail drugs are already having their effect!

Not true, of course. According to Science, however, there are hazards in these aircraft-generated sky tracings.

According to the AAAS magazine’s News in Brief in its July 5, 2019, issue, “Contrails Threaten Climate.” That is, the matter of contrails is more subtle than mere mind control.

An Airbus A340 generating contrails. Image by Arpingstone at Wikipedia.

Contrail Generation: How and Where. Contrails form when water vapor in aircraft exhaust freezes in the frigid air of high altitude. Because of their characteristic shape, contrails are distinguishable from clouds, even from satellite images.

Also, unlike clouds, contrails exist at high altitudes and this is the problem. Low-level clouds reflect sunlight and cool the atmosphere. High-altitude contrails trap heat radiated from Earth and warm it.

A New Model. Details of this phenomenon are given in “Contrail Cirrus Radiative Forcing for Future Air Traffic,” by Lisa Bock and Ulrike Burkhardt, of Germany’s Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institute für Physik der Atmosphäre, in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Volume 19, issue 12, 2019.

Bock and Burkhardt note, “Air traffic contributed approximately 5 percent to the anthropogenic climate forcing in 2005 (Lee et al., 2009) , and its contribution is rising due to the large yearly increases in air traffic (ICAO, 2007).”

Enhanced Efficiency Isn’t Enough. New-generation jets display reductions in soot, which lead to less carbon emissions. Bock and Burkhardt note that a 50-percent reduction in soot, which gives a significant decrease in contrail optical depth, results in a decrease in radiative forcing of approximately 15 percent.

However, they calculate, “The strong increase in contrail cirrus radiative forcing due to the projected increase in air traffic volume cannot be compensated for by the decrease in initial ice crystal numbers due to reduced soot emissions and improvements in propulsion efficiency.”

Climate Change May Affect Contrails. Conversely, the researchers say, “With climate change caused by increased greenhouse gas concentration, contrail cirrus formation and properties may change.”

In fact, they note, the change could go either way: “The increase in temperature may lead to a lower contrail formation probability, in particular in the tropics and in summer in the subtropics (Marquart et al., 2003). An increase in atmospheric water vapour concentration may lead to higher contrail cirrus ice water content and optical depths. A decrease in the ice supersaturation frequency (Irvine and Shine, 2015) may result in lower contrail cirrus coverage and associated radiative forcing.”

Their analysis models such phenomena. The researchers write in this 2019 paper, “Even if soot number emissions could be reduced by 90 percent, the associated reduction in contrail cirrus radiative forcing (Burkhardt et al., 2018) in the year 2050 would likely not be enough to stabilize contrail cirrus radiative forcing at the level of the year 2006.”

The ICAO’s CORSIA. The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation was developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization.

With respect to its goals, Bock and Burkhardt conclude, “Since the increase in contrail cirrus radiative forcing can be stronger than in CO2 radiative forcing, both radiative forcing components need to be considered in future agreements.” ds

© Dennis Simanaitis, SimanaitisSays.com, 2019

5 comments on “CONTRAIL HAZARDS

  1. Robin Reid
    July 10, 2019

    I remember seeing satellite photos of the USA on the day before and the day of 11/11 when ALL aircraft traffic was grounded, and the difference was astounding. On the day after there was virtually NO cloud cover.

    Keep up your good work, and thanks.

  2. Robin Reid
    July 10, 2019

    Shoulda proofread that better, but you get the drift I hope.

    • simanaitissays
      July 10, 2019

      Thanks for your kind words. Funny thing about proofreading: As originally posted at 6:05 a.m. Pacific, the word ARE/are was repeated in the lead. I caught it in my a.m. check and fixed it. (One of the luxuries of a website is not having to run from drugstore to drugstore fixing typos.)

  3. jlalbrecht64
    July 14, 2019

    TIL. The reason I never miss a post. You never know from day to day what Simanaitis will say.

    • simanaitissays
      July 14, 2019

      Ha! Neither do I!
      I’m reminded of the daft old woman who said, “How ever do I know what I’m going to say until I say it.”
      Thanks sincerely for your kind words. They’re much appreciated.

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